Catching up with Martin Armstrong:

“Nero’s reputation has been the consequence of ancient fake news that to this day, distorts the man and what he stood against for his attempt to drain the swamp.

The Deep State conspired to kill Nero for his reforms, reflecting the growing discontent among the ruling class of the Roman state with Nero’s increasing attack upon corruption. Some wished to replace Nero with a better emperor who understood the Deep State was off limits. Others wished to be free of emperors altogether, and restore a purely Republican form of government with all its free-wheeling corruption.”

Nero the Antichrist – Deep State & Fake News

“The question of TIME has puzzled humanity for millennia. What is it? Does it flow like a river?

Cycles exist both on a fixed level of time as well as a dynamic level within TIME – Longitudinal & Transverse.

Legends of massive waves that drag ships to their doom have often been attributed to giant monsters of something supernatural. They can be explained as cyclical convergences whereby numerous cyclical waves combine together and produce an abnormally large wave that causes amplitudes of individual waves to blend together, producing a huge event.”

How to Use the Forecasting Arrays

Year 2023 analysis from Hong Kong:

“Our view is that the US stock market and economy are about to tank due to the decline in the monetary inflation rate that has already occurred. The Fed has made its last rate hike and will be cutting rates by the final quarter of next year.”

https://tsi-blog.com/2022/12/the-coming-plunge-in-short-term-interest-rates/

Know thyself
Nothing to excess
Certainty brings insanity

https://www.history.com/topics/ancient-greece/delphi

Another example of what happens when following the crowd:

A 2022 review of an Admiral Hyman Rickover biography:

“Why is the US populated by so many unreasonable, opposite, entrepreneurial thinkers? We’re not a race as much as we are or we’re descended from a collection of people from around the world who somewhat uniquely decided to risk everything (including their lives) to cross oceans and borders in pursuit not of security, but freedom.

Americans aren’t (name your country) as much as they’re outliers from those countries who had the drive and courage to make the ultimate entrepreneurial leap: starting over in an all-new place. Rickover was one of them.

He made sure that seagoing accommodations were far better for submariners who operated his nuclear subs relative to the horrendous conditions that prevailed in the diesel submarines of the past. He said ‘Don’t tell me what’s going great. I only want to know what’s going wrong.’

His family escaping horrid poverty didn’t look too appealing upon arrival at Ellis Island, but that’s the point. The U.S. won the so-called War on Poverty in the late 18th century by virtue of principles of freedom that it was founded upon. Poverty isn’t cured by handouts as much as freedom is always the answer.”

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/02/24/book_review_marc_wortmans_excellent_admiral_hyman_rickover_818373.html

I didn’t have positive expectations of an interview forty years ago with Admiral Rickover for a position on his staff. I was selected for being top of my Supply Corps class, but wasn’t the Type A personality he wanted for his purposes.

It was still instructive to talk with a person who thoroughly understood what he wanted and how to get there.

“We currently have two distinct sources of inflation, with the first being the previous supply chain-driven inflation, and the second being inflation from the Ukrainian War and related sanctions. With the release of the March Consumer Price Index, for the first time we saw combined effects of both sources of inflation for a full month.

The March 2022 Consumer Price Index was released on April 12, 2022, and it is being reported as an 8.5% rate of inflation when compared to the March 2021 CPI number. This 8.5% inflation figure is based on 11 months without the Ukrainian War, and one 1 full month with the War.

The CPI on a seasonably-adjusted basis rose by 1.2% in March, a 15.4% annual rate of inflation. If we don’t seasonably adjust and compare February and March price levels, the monthly rate of inflation is 1.3%, a 16.8% annual rate of inflation.

Three month Treasury yields rose to an average of 0.41% in March. However, inflation rose from the previous rolling three month average of 7.84% to 15.4%. So we now have a negative real interest rate of almost exactly 15%.

The Taylor Rule formula says that the best way for the Fed to bring down a persistent 15.4% rate of inflation is to bring the Fed Funds rate up to 24.1%. Interest rates moving to 24% may sound like a bizarrely improbable scenario. The alternative to 24% interest rates is to let 15% inflation continue.

The problem is that inflation is an exponential series. We haven’t seen exponential compounding of high rates in many years.”

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/J2CPIfifteen.html “A 15.4% Annualized Rate Of Inflation”

Children stand next to a tower of 100,000 marks, equal in value to one US dollar. 1923, from Rare Historical Photos. I’ll point out that an American in 1923 could go to their bank and redeem one US dollar for one troy ounce of gold.

Didn’t agree with the author’s sources of inflation analysis. But not going to take my time and effort to lay out alternatives because https://xkcd.com/386/

“The gradual part of going bankrupt is over.”

Worthless banknotes collected to be burned. 1923, from Rare Historical Photos.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/03/29/gradually-then-suddenly/

A musical analogue.