The evidence says..

Three items to follow up yesterday’s The UK downgraded COVID-19 a week ago:

1. From March 24, 2020:

Oxford Epidemiologist: Here’s Why That Doomsday Model Is Likely Way Off

“Fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.”

However, that was based on “my model’s better than yours” arguments rather than sufficient evidence.

2. From March 26, 2020:

Dr. Deborah Birx Shreds Media For Salacious Claims: ‘We Don’t Have Evidence Of That’

“Birx began by highlighting the study in the U.K. that dramatically revised its projections of the total number of deaths projected in the U.K. from ‘half a million to 20,000.’

‘When people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected,’ Birx later added. ‘It’s very scary, but we don’t have data that matches that based on the experience.'”

3. From March 25, 2020: the panic model’s lead researcher offered a long non-apology to UK Parliament, which they accepted uncritically:

Witness: Professor Neil Ferguson, Director, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London

Still don’t know exactly who is herding the US population. We wait at home for headlines to emphasize evidence.

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